This Just In ...
The National Council on Compensation Insurance has released its latest Quarterly Economics Briefing, examining the current state of the economy and its implications for workers' compensation insurance.
Here are some of the key economic findings:
- GDP is forecast to grow 2.5 percent in 2019, slowing to below 2 percent in 2020 from softer investment and consumption, as well as trade-related issues
- Forecast employment growth follows a similar path: 1.8 percent in 2019, slowing to 0.9 percent in 2020
- The unemployment rate is currently 3.7 percent and total job openings outnumber the unemployed
- The average weekly wage grew 3.4 percent in 2018. It is forecast to grow 3.6 percent in 2019 and 4.4 percent in 2020. The forecast has been revised down for 2019 and up for 2020 relative to forecasts from the April 2019 QEB
- Medical inflation is forecast to remain below 2 percent in 2018 and 2019, increasing thereafter
The Briefing also offers observations on nontraditional work arrangements and the gig economy:
- The proportion of self-employment and nontraditional work arrangements have not increased in the last 15 years with respect to primary employment
- There are about 15 million people in alternative work arrangements as their primary job, but as many as 30 percent of US adults do some informal work
- Most workers in nontraditional work arrangements earn less than one-quarter of their annual income from these sources
- The number of Americans doing electronically mediated work has tripled in the past five years, but income from this work still accounts for less than 1 percent of total income
- Several state legislatures and agencies have considered whether certain nontraditional workers should be employees or independent contractors, but the stance has not been consistent across all states.
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